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Winning Bets in Greyhound Racing
Win Bets
In today’s world of straw races players have been forced to play exotic bets to get a decent return on their biggest investments. When you compare the $100,000 plus winning pools of hidden races to the anemic con racing pools of less than $1,000 and the reason becomes clear. To extract any value in the sport of dog racing you have to play exotic pools.
I play the horses and puppies. I play both sports in completely different ways. What works in horse racing does not work in dog racing. It requires two completely different skill sets. When asked what my favorite answer is always horse racing. It only makes sense if you think about it. When I play the horses I just look for likely winners and then see if it will be profitable for me to play that horse to win. In greyhound racing I have to find a winner and then evaluate 7 other competitors to run with my top winner. I also need to study how many combinations I can play to give myself a shot at winning while keeping those combinations small enough for my bets to be profitable. I’ve always loved a good challenge, but given the choice I’d play dog so fast to win it. In anticipation of better winning pools, I hope soon, I decided to visit this possibility and talk about the things involved in being profitable with this type of play .
Hand in hand
The first step is to block it outright. In my opinion I would only be doing you a disservice by trying to summarize how to get the upper hand in this short article. That’s why I created grehound online university to teach. It takes training, time and effort to become good at disability. Certainly not something I can teach in this short article. But I can give you some ideas and how to apply them to playing winning pools.
Speed, Class, Early Speed and Form are the main fundamentals of dog blocking. These are the basics. Beyond that there is opportunity. That was the establishment of the race you are analyzing. None of these factors mean much if a dog is in a race that provides conditions that give him a long shot at winning. There is a lot of information online that you can Google and read for free on the subject of Speed, Class, Early Speed and Form. Using that information you will improve your blocking method.
Once you have a method you need to verify its accuracy. In today’s world of online data it is much easier than anyone to collect results and see how your picks perform. You have to play on paper and compile results and statistics to know how good you are at picking winners. Most handicappers find that they perform better in some races than others. Some players specialize in morning races, or track races etc. Know what your strengths are and what your average winning percentage is.
Promise value
Once you have a blocking method your role as a player becomes simple. You want to bet on your selections in a profitable way. Below is a fictional example of how this could be achieved
Let’s say you’ve proven you can pick the winner in Maiden sprint races about 40% of the time. You also know that your second pick comes in to win about 25% of the time. You could even go further if you have the records to back it up and say your third pick wins 15% of the time. To play Maiden races for profits you just need to make a bet that will bring a long term profit. Remember that it is never whether you win or lose a particular race. It’s about playing a number of races and making more from cash tickets than you originally did. This is why record keeping is so important.
In the example above you assume that 1, 2 and 8 are the 3 best selections.
1 – 40%
2 – 25%
8 – 15%
What does that mean translated into odds? You need to know this to make good decisions.
40% wins means the real odds of a dog winning are 1 in 2.5 or 1.5/1 against. Tote table odds are 1.5/1 expressed as 3/2.
If you don’t have a good understanding of odds vs win % here is a chart to help you.
Win Odds – Win%
1/10 – 90.91
1/5 – 83.33
2/5 – 71.42
1/2 – 66.67
3/5 – 62.50
4/5 – 55.56
1/1 – 50.00
6/5 – 45.45
7/5 – 41.67
3/2 – 40.00
8/5 – 38.46
9/5 – 35.71
2/1 – 33.33
5/2 – 28.57
3/1 – 25.00
7/2 – 22.22
4/1 – 20.00
9/2 – 18.19
5/1 – 16.67
6/1 – 14.29
7/1 – 12.50
8/1 – 11.11
9/1 – 10.00
10/1 – 9.09
11/1 – 8.33
12/1 – 7.69
15/1 – 6.25
20/1 – 4.76
25/1 – 3.85
30/1 – 3.23
50/1 – 1.96
99/1 – 1.00
Don’t let the math and the decimals and the percentages scare you. With a little time you will become very familiar with it. I like to use an easy example to get people started. Once you get the hang of the easy ones it will help you understand them all. All of us are usually more comfortable than tens. This is the basis on which the dollar is based and we are generally more comfortable with it.
If a dog has a 10% chance of winning, it has a 1 in 10 chance. If you divide 100 by 10 you get 10. So there are 10 blocks and our dog has ONE of them. So 10% is a 1 in 10 chance of winning.
Now odds are represented as AGAINST ODDS. So if a dog has a 1 in 10 chance of winning, the odds are 9 to 1 AGAINST.
To be profitable, if you know the odds of dogs winning all you have to do is make the winning pool MORE than pay you those odds! It’s really quite simple.
So back to our example
1 – 40% 3/2 odd
2 – 25% 3/1 odd
8 – 15% 6/1 odd
So we would put our hands on the race and be ready to play well before post time. It’s as simple as comparing the odds the crowd gives you compared to the spells you get.
Let’s say with 1 minute left to bet the 1 dog has a 1/5 chance on the tote board. The winning pool gives you much less than this dog’s actual chance of winning. You need to get MORE to show profit at the end of the week, month and year. Remember that the odds table is a good chance. You need to get MORE than that in return.
Your dog has a 25% chance of winning 2 from your records. That’s a 3/1 chance. Looking at the tote table you can see that the 2 dogs are at 6/1. That’s a double overlay! People are willing to pay twice for you to have a real chance to win this fuel. So the best play in this race is to bet the 2 to win, even though there is a 40% chance that the 1 will win the race.
This means 75% of the time you lose the race. But remember… winning or losing one race is not the issue. Making money is an issue. Let’s look at the 2 dogs we hypothetically bet above.
By your own research this dog should win about 25% of the time. This means that he loses 75% of the time. But let’s look at a series of 12 races. This means we will bet 12 times this month on a 3/1 dog at 6/1 chance.
Bet $2 12 times for a total of $24 in bets.
Dog wins 3 times (25%) with 6/1 chance
You collect $14 each time. 3 X 14 = $42
$42 collected
– $24 paid
————–
$18 profit
And that’s how you lose 75% of the time and still make money
COLLECTION
Betting to win is part art and part good. But it is much more complicated than building a complex complex bet. If you can improve your skills on the ‘art’ part of the process, the math part will do the work on its own.
Now work on playing to win in the WIN pools at the dog trail!
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